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5:00PM GMT 10 Mar 2013
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A new party led by economists, jurists, and Christian Democrat rebels will kick off this week, calling for the break-up of monetary union before it can do any more damage.
"An end to this euro," is the first line on the webpage of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). "The introduction of the euro has proved to be a fatal mistake, that threatens the welfare of us all. The old parties are used up. They stubbornly refuse to admit their mistakes."
They propose German withdrawl from EMU and return to the D-Mark, or a breakaway currency with the Dutch, Austrians, Finns, and like-minded nations. The French are not among them. The borders run along the ancient line of cleavage dividing Latins from Germanic tribes.
The plans draw on work by Hans-Olaf Henkel, former head of Germany's industry federation (BDI) and a chastened europhile -- the "worst error of my professional life", he told me.
The appeal of German exit is obvious. It is the least traumatic way to end the 20pc to 30pc misalignment between North and South, the cancer eating Europe. Club Med keeps the euro. It enjoys instant devaluation, while still able to uphold euro debt contracts. The spectre of sovereign defaults recedes.
The party hopes to contest the federal elections in September, winning enough votes to scramble a tight race. Chancellor Angela Merkel suddenly has a "UKIP problem" on the her right flank.
Should she sign off on a bail-out out for Cyprus -- safeguarding the "dirty funds of Russian oligarchs", as the AfD puts it -- she will be raked by heavy fire.
That will test her solidarity mantra, and she can turn on a Pfennig. She ditched her nuclear energy policy days after surveying the post-Fukushima polls.
Nobody knows how much support AfD could command. Protest parties usually flop in Germany, but the Free Voters won 10pc in Bavaria in 2008 on a Right-leaning, eurosceptic ticket, and there have never been circumstances quite like this before.
The slide towards fiscal union is a constitutional revolution. It erodes the budgetary supremacy of the Bundestag and threatens to eviscerate Germany's vibrant post-war democracy. Large matters.
The AfD leader Bernd Lucke says Beppe Grillo's threat to default on Italy's external debt has demolished claims that Germany's rescue pledges will never be called.
"The Italian election shows how dangerous the whole euro crisis really is. Whether countries can and will pay back their debts is dependent on the unpredictable voting choices of their peoples," he said.
Professor Lucke, an expert on Real Business Cycle Theory, says German voters may not have mastered EMU mechanics but they can see it is going off the rails. "Everybody understands that 50pc youth unemployment in Greece and Spain is a catastrophe," he said.
The latest ZDF poll shows that 65pc of Germans think the euro is damaging, and 49pc think Germany would be better outside the EU. This is no doubt "soft", yet what is clear is that the all-party consensus on EMU gives voters nowhere to turn.
The rebels may struggle to cross the 5pc threshold for seats in the Bundestag, but they do not have to take seats to plague Angela Merkel over the next six months. She is already in trouble. Her Free Democrat (FDP) allies have crashed to 4pc in the polls.
Alternative für Deutschland threatens to take votes from the Right. On the other side, the Green resurgence to 16pc makes up for the sluggish Social Democrats. As things stand, the Left is slightly ahead. Angela Merkel is on course to lose office.
"Merkel will have to be even tougher on Europe, she cannot allow herself to be outflanked," said David Marsh, author of books on the euro and the Bundesbank. "She will try to keep up a steely facade and hope everything stays calm until September, but the next crisis may come to a head before that."
Indeed it may. Italy does not have a government, and putatitve premier Pier Luigi Bersani has vowed break out of the "austerity cage", explicitly rejecting policies that anchor the EU backstop for Italian bonds.
Fitch expects Italy's public debt to hit 130pc of GDP this year, up from 125pc forecast a few months ago. The country has one foot in a debt compound trap already. One more shock will do it.
This latest deterioration is self-inflicted, the result of contractionary EU policies that have pushed Euroland into a double-dip slump, and ravaged Italy in particular with fiscal tightening of 3pc of GDP in 2012.
This policy was deranged. Italy's primary budget was already near balance. Fiscal overkill caused to the economy to contract by 2.6pc in 2012, and the debt ratio to rise even faster. In flogging Italy's economy to death, EU elites have destroyed political consent for the reforms that are most needed.
For Germany's Alternative, September may come too soon. Michael Wohlgemuth from Open Europe says they lack the organization for a quick breack-through, but their moment may come in next year's vote for Euro-MPs.
"By then the real costs of the bail-outs for German taxpayers will be clearer. People sense that at a crisis is looming, but they have not yet felt it," he said.
The tragedy for Germany is that the bill for EMU will come due just as the country's aging crunch hits. Germany will have impoverished itself for no useful purpose, and without winning much love in the process.
Some say Germany is "winning" because its firms are conquering Club Med markets with a rigged exchange rate, but that is a Pyrrhic triumph. Latins will not tolerate this, once they grasp that the "gains" of their internal devaluations -- ie 1930s wage cuts -- are dwarfed by the greater losses of a wasted youth.
There are no winners. Each country is blighted in turn, and in different ways. Like Goethe's Sorcerer's Apprentice, they have launched an experiment they cannot control. The broom has a fiendish will of its own.
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TRADUZIONE,CLICCA:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FLmHrzepFQjyHXrA5vMYh5B_BGmvSXLJgd-1bp9RvSM/pub
REAZIONE:LASCIAMO PARLARE IL TEMOPO,LA RIELEZIONE DELLA MERCKEL E' TUTT'ALTRO CHE SCONTATA.
11 marzo 2013:NON E' COLONIALISMO
-TITOLARE SU "THE TELGRAPH":
Falklands referendum: islanders wearing Union flags party on voting day
REAZIONE:SCONTANDO CHE IL VOTO SARA FAVOREVOLE A RESTARE CON GRAN BRETAGNA.LE FAULKLAND SRANNO UN TERRITORIO INDEPENDENTE SOTTO PROTETTORATO BRITATNICO CHE SOLO SI OCCUPERA DELLA DIFESA.
11 MARZO 2013:COMMON WEALTH DAY
-THE TELEGRAPH:
In a televised ceremony at Marlborough House in London’s Pall Mall on Monday, the Queen will sign a new Commonwealth charter, setting out for the first time in a single document the organisation’s “core values and the aspiration of its members”. It includes affirmations on democracy, human rights, international peace and security as well as freedom of expression. It also contains a commitment to “gender equality” and “women’s empowerment”.
The charter was agreed last year by heads of government of the 54 member states that belong to one of the world’s most enduring international institutions. The affection and respect felt for the Queen as the head of the Commonwealth has been instrumental in that success, a point made to me by Sir Don McKinnon, a blunt New Zealand sheep farmer and politician who from 2000 to 2008 was its secretary general. The future, however, is less certain.
Sir Don’s term coincided with Tony Blair’s government, and (though he is too polite to say so) he clearly found the arrogance and ignorance of New Labour a strain. He explains how Chancellor Gordon Brown invited him to a Downing Street dinner in honour of the Italian finance minister. Brown introduced Sir Don as “head of the British Commonwealth”. “Sorry, Gordon, wrong on both counts. The Queen is the head, and the British Commonwealth died in 1949, before you were born.”
David Miliband, suggests McKinnon – who is in London to promote his new book In the Ring – was equally ignorant. Sir Don reveals that he found himself obliged to explain some of the basic workings of the Commonwealth to the head of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). “He wasn’t aware that the head of the Commonwealth wasn’t an inherited position,” McKinnon recalls. Worse still was Blair, about whom Don McKinnon is scathing: “I think he put the Commonwealth in the same category as fox-hunting: it belonged to another age. It wasn’t really New Labour.”
It is horrifying, and rather shaming, listening to McKinnon on the attitude of the British government towards the Commonwealth. There is no question that he values the institution, which on Monday celebrates its annual Commonwealth Day, to be marked with a multi-faith service in Westminster Abbey. He believes it does a great deal of good and feels enormous affection for it.
“When you put 54 leaders together in that room, they are sitting around as though they are in a large family drawing room. They are relaxed. It’s all done with great humour,” he says. “That’s why, for the smaller countries, it’s so important to feel they belong to something worthwhile. It is truly global.”
His book contains scores of examples in which the Commonwealth has worked quietly to confront dictators, safeguard freedom or improve daily life for people. He cites his repeated conversations with presidents Musharraf of Pakistan and Mugabe of Zimbabwe, or his pride in changes to the primary school curriculum in Ghana: “A couple of years later, you see kids with just that bit more confidence coming through as a result.”
Many countries would regard this kind of privileged membership of a group that embraces one quarter of the countries in the world as priceless. But McKinnon makes it clear that the FCO places negligible importance on the Commonwealth. He gives a series of examples.
On one occasion, six members of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) – all foreign ministers – flew to London to discuss a political crisis. The FCO couldn’t be bothered to send a minister to walk across St James’s Park to see them. “If George Bush came to town,” says Sir Don, “all the foreign ministers would have been there.”
On another occasion CMAG was in New York in a crisis session when Peter Hain, then an FCO minister, quit the room, saying that he had another meeting to go to. “It was only the following day that I found out he’d gone off to address some political spouses!”
In his book he reveals how he confronted Sir Michael (now Lord) Jay, the notoriously careerist and Blair-friendly FCO permanent secretary: “I told him bluntly that he had to demonstrate a firmer commitment to UK ministerial attendance at these meetings. I reminded him that the FCO had a secretary of state and three ministers in Whitehall.” Finally, McKinnon warned the hapless Jay that his “commitment and reputation needed sharpening up”.
“In all my discussions with Sir Michael Jay,” writes Sir Don, “I never had the feeling he was a committed Commonwealth man.”
In general, says Sir Don, “the Foreign Office has left the Commonwealth to one side of the mainstream of activity. You could say – well, that’s to be expected. After all, for every £1 they give the Commonwealth they give £350 to the EU, £50 to the UN and £10 to Nato.” (Though he stresses that these figures are from 2008.)
Matters may have improved since the 2010 election, though. “William Hague has certainly put a lot more effort into the Commonwealth,” acknowledges Sir Don, adding, “David Cameron has talked about it a few times.”
He is full of praise for Lord Howell, appointed a foreign office minister in 2010: “I was really pleased when he became a minister, because I thought, there’s someone there who actually knows what’s going on.”
I am obliged to break it to him that Lord Howell was sacked in last year’s reshuffle (in a phone call from his son-in-law, the Chancellor). Sir Don looks surprised and a bit crestfallen.
I ask him what it means to have the Queen as head of the Commonwealth. “It does give the Commonwealth something that no other international organisation has,” he replies. “She gets a tremendous amount of affection from Commonwealth leaders. They truly all do like her very much. They enjoy meeting her. They enjoy chatting with her. She keeps people at ease. They all regard it as something very special.”
He also praises the role of the Prince of Wales: “We recently had Charles and Camilla in New Zealand, and I’d be prepared to say that the heir to the throne is far more relaxed than I have ever seen him. The result of that is that he gets along famously with any contact he has. His tour of NZ and, I’m told, Australia was very, very successful.”
Mention of the Prince of Wales brings us to one of the most vexed questions in the Commonwealth, though rarely discussed openly: who will take over when the Queen steps down?
In his book, Sir Don carefully sets out the situation: “It is not an inherited role, so, while the Prince of Wales would automatically become king, there would have to be a process for managing a transition to head of the Commonwealth. If it happened on my watch, the process would be along these lines: I would see if there was a consensus among Commonwealth leaders in favour of the Prince of Wales.
“If this was quickly apparent, an announcement could be made before the Queen’s funeral and it could subsequently be included in the new sovereign’s titles. If there was no consensus, the issue could be held over until the next Commonwealth heads of government meeting.”
I ask him how the debate about the Queen’s successor as head of the Commonwealth is going. “When I talk to leaders quite candidly on the subject, always on a one-to-one basis, no one taking records, they have all tended to follow the same line,” replies Sir Don, explaining that reaching beyond the British monarchy would raise questions of “How long would their term be, and if that term finishes at a certain time what would you do then? Would you have to do it region by region?”
In his book he says: “In all my meetings with many Commonwealth heads of government about who will take over… there has always been a circuitous discussion that canvasses all the alternatives and eventually goes the full circle and returns to the British monarch.” Before our interview ends, Sir Don quotes former President Obasanjo of Nigeria, who told him: “We don’t feel diminished by having our former colonial ruler as our current head of state.” Sir Don concludes: “To me that was very telling.”
'In the Ring: A Commonwealth Memoir’ by Don McKinnon (Elliott & Thompson) is available to order from Telegraph Books at £18 + £1.35 p&p. Call 0844 871 1514 or visit books.telegraph.co.uk
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E SU "LE MONDE":
International
Référendum aux Malouines sur le rattachement à la Grande-Bretagne
L'Argentine a d'ores et déjà prévenu que ce scrutin
sans "aucune base légale" ne mettrait pas "un terme au différend"
sur la souveraineté des Malouines.
-QUESTA E' LA MIA OPINIONE:L'ARGENTINA HA PERSO TERRENO
IN QUESTA TESTARDA RIVINDICAZIONE. DOPO CHE SI E' SGRETOLATO
L'INIZIALE APPOGIO MONOLITICO DELLA REGIONE(CONO SUD E
AMERICA LATINA)LA KITCHNER COME HA FATTO PRIMA IL
GOVERNO MILITARE DI LEO FORTUNATO GALTIERI CERCA DI
DEVIARE L'ATTENZIONE SULLA DIFFICILE SITUAZIONE ECONOMICA
DEL PAESE E LA CRESCENTE PROTESTA INTERNA CERCANDO DI
UNIRE TUTTI IN TORNO AD UN CAUSA ESTERNA .
NON SO A QUALE "RAZZA" DI BASE LEGALE SI RIFERISCE LA
KITCHNER MA RESTA CHIARO CHE GLI STATI NON POSSONO
MISCONOSCERE IL DIRITTO ALL'AUTODETERMINAZIONE
DEGLI AUTOTTONI.GLI ABITANTI DELL'ISOLA SONO LI
PRIMA CHE L'ARGENTINA ESSISTESE COME PAESE E SONO
STATI DA SEMPRE GLI UNICI RESIDENTI DELL'ISOLA.
-TITOLARE LA REPUBBLICA:
Intercettazioni Quirinale, dalla Cassazione
stop alla distruzione immediata dei nastri
Trattativa Stato-Mafia, dichiarato ammissibile il ricorso di Ciancimino jr. che sostiene un vulnus al diritto di difesa. L'impugnazione sarà però giudicata nel merito il 18 aprile
12 MARZO 2013:RUSSO KO
-GOOGLE NEWS:
Uomini Donne - Non solo uomini e donne
Satellite russo ko, colpito da detrito spaziale cinese
| Corriere della Sera | - |
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As was anticipated 99.8% of Falkland Islanders voted to maintain the current political status of the Islands as a British Overseas Territory, it was announced late Monday evening by the local electoral authorities.
Come è stato anticipato il 99,8% delle Falkland Islanders hanno votato per mantenere lo status politico attuale delle isole come un territorio britannico d'oltremare, è stato annunciato nella tarda serata di Lunedi dalle autorità locali elettorali.
«LA CONFESSIONE»
La dj Maugeri: «Il mio no a Chris Martin»
di Giuseppe Di Piazza
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